The 7-5 Houston Texans will look to climb the AFC South ladder with a win this Sunday at the breezy and possibly wet MetLife Stadium vs. Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. NFL odds favor the Texans, and rightfully so.
With C.J. Stroud and the indoor offense of the Texans rolling into what is expected to be a rough-weathered game, should bettors expect some slow football out of the gates?
I break down the Week 14 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Texans vs. Jets on Sunday, December 10.
Texans vs Jets odds
Texans vs Jets predictions
The New York Jets took plenty of professional money this week that moved the +6 spread to as short as +5. This was before the news that Zach Wilson was going to be the starter for the rest of the season. This is less of a vote of confidence on the Jets than it is a knock on the Houston Texans offense in these conditions.
Houston comes into this game as the No. 10 scoring offense at 23.4 points per game, but there is a reason that this total has fallen from 38.5 to 33, and that’s the NFL weather.
The weather report for the entire Northwest is not looking good. The Meadowlands is expected to have winds of 20 mph with sustained gusts of 28 mph. There is also a 30% chance of rain. The wind is more of a concern than the rain and is what’s driving this total down.
C.J. Stroud’s numbers are worse on the road this year with a completion percentage two points lower away from Houston and a yards-per-pass mark substantially lower at -1.8 yards. The rookie has also played the majority of his road games in warm or indoor venues which include Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Carolina — all three losses.
This is going to be a game the Houston offense has to adapt quickly vs. a very good New York defense that ranks second on the season in success rate.
Stroud exited the last game after appearing to take a hit to the head but cleared the in-game protocol. He was sacked three times and took eight hits in total. He will also be without receiver Tank Dell meaning Nico Collins will see plenty of Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed who rank fourth and fifth at their position respectively, per Pro Football Focus.
Tight end Dalton Schultz is also working his way back from a hamstring injury and Noah Brown has been in and out of the lineup this year missing six games. There is talk that Houston will run more two-TE sets this week with the injury to Dell.
All of this is leading to a low-scoring first half and with a total of 17.5, I’m taking the Under now at -115 before those 17.5s turn into 16.5s.
I have no faith in this New York offense and both head coaches know each other very well with their time in San Francisco. The weather is going to make things ugly, especially early, and getting this Under on the good side of 17 is key here.
My best bet: First half Under 17.5 (-115 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Texans vs Jets same-game parlay
First half Under 17.5C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 interceptionsDameon Pierce Over 37.5 rushing yards
+625 at bet365
I had to adjust the 1H total to 19.5 as bet365 only has incremented totals, so the choice was either 16.5 or 19.5.
Stroud has only tossed five picks all year, but four of them have come in the last four games and these will be the most difficult passing conditions he’s faced all year. On top of that, he has to deal with elite corners without the aid of Dell.
Both sides’ rushing games should be busy but it’s Dameon Pierce showing the best EV as THE BLITZ has him for 57.9 rushing yards. He has taken back the lead-role duties and had 15 carries to Devin Singletary’s eight last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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