Nike Monarchs in a 4E width. Those are the shoes Mike Macdonald has to fill after taking over for Pete Carroll as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks in 2024.
Macdonald inherits a promising young roster along with some proven veteran standouts, yet expectations are tempered for the first-time head coach. Preseason previews and the NFL odds have Seattle fighting to stay out of last place in the NFC West.
The Seahawks have a season win total of 7.5 (Over -138) and the look-ahead lines list them as favorites in only five games. Macdonald doesn’t just have those “dad shoes” to fill. He also has to live up to Carroll’s legacy with NFL bettors, with Seattle ranking among the most profitable teams during his 14-year tenure (126-111-9 ATS).
Can the Seahawks be a hidden gem in the Emerald City or will they leave bettors sleepless in Seattle? Here are my NFL picks and 2024 Seattle Seahawks NFL betting preview.
Seattle Seahawks odds
| Win Super Bowl | +6500 |
| Win conference | +2800 |
| Win division | +700 |
| Make playoffs | +180 |
| Over 7.5 wins | -135 |
| Under 7.5 wins | +115 |
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 Wins (+115)
Injuries threw the 2023 Seattle Seahawks for a loop, especially on offense, so the ceiling is higher for that group. That said, Seattle is undergoing a major overhaul on both sides of the ball, and getting eight wins will be tough with those growing pains spoiling winnable matchups in the first two months.
Look-ahead lines give the Seahawks the points in a dozen games and seven of those spread sit above a field goal. The season’s home stretch is notably stiff with four of the final six games coming on the road. I like Seattle as a potential ATS winner but not against its season win total.
Seattle Seahawks at a glance: How good is Geno?
I see play-on potential for Seattle, with Macdonald shaking up the defense and the offense packing plenty of punch. In the end, however, it all comes down to Geno Smith. His 2022 campaign seems like an aberration and he’s already behind schedule with new OC Ryan Grubb after getting injured in camp.
What will win bets: Skill players
If Smith can stay healthy and come near his 2022 numbers, then the Seahawks’ surplus of skill guys will carry him the rest of the way. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs brings a fresh and frenetic approach after making Washington a national title contender.
The receiving corps has a great one-two punch in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett along with budding WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The ground game has a stud in RB Kenneth Walker. Seattle finished Top 10 in EPA per play and Top 12 in DVOA in 2023 despite injuries up and down the offensive depth chart.
What will lose bets: Defense
Some of the pieces are in place for a sound Seattle stop unit, but that might not happen in Year 1 under Macdonald. There’s a steep learning curve to his playbook, which thrives on versatile defenders being able to give different looks in a zone-based scheme. Many preseason polls have the Seahawks sitting bottom eight.
It also doesn’t help that the 2024 schedule features some of the top offensive attacks in the land, including run-ins with Miami, Detroit, Buffalo, Green Bay, and San Francisco twice. There are also many opponents on the up-and-up, with Atlanta, the Jets, Chicago, and the Rams twice.
Seattle Seahawks schedule + spot bet: The Bye divides
It’s a tale of two seasons for the Seahawks, split down the middle by a Week 10 bye. The first nine weeks keep Seattle home for six contests at the always-loudd Lumen Field.
During Carroll’s 14 seasons, the infamous “12” helped the Seahawks cover 56% of home games (66-51-3 ATS) and 2024 look-ahead lines have Seattle as a pup in four of those homestands. The team is 20-9 ATS as a rare home underdog since 2010, including 6-3 ATS in those spots the past three years.
Week 11 sends Seattle to San Francisco and kicks off a crazy finish, putting the Seahawks on the road in five of the final eight outings: at San Francisco (+9), N.Y. Jets (+4.5), Arizona (+1), Chicago (+3.5), and the L.A. Rams (+5.5). Any playoff hopes could quickly dry up after that stretch.
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Denver |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ New England |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Miami |
| 4 | Monday, September 30 | @ Detroit |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs New York (G) |
| 6 | Thursday, October 10 | vs San Francisco |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Atlanta |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Buffalo |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs Los Angeles (R) |
| 10 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ San Francisco |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs Arizona |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ New York (J) |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Arizona |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs Green Bay |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs Minnesota |
| 17 | Thursday, December 26 | @ Chicago |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Los Angeles (R) |
Spot bet: Week 14 @ Arizona (+1, 46)
The Week 14 trip to Arizona looks to be the kindest of those closing roadies, with the line sitting at Seahawks +1.
However, it will be the second of back-to-back road games for Seattle – after crossing the country to play the Jets in a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) on Dec. 1 — and the third road game in four weeks. A Sunday night home date against the Packers in Week 15 could also serve as a look-ahead trap.
It will be the Seahawks’ second meeting with the Cardinals in three weeks after hosting their NFC West foe in Week 12.
Downtick from DK
- Awards
- TDs
- Yards
| To win MVP | +40000 |
| To win AWARD | +6000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +2500 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +3000 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 6.5 receiving TD | -125 |
| Under 6.5 receiving TD | +100 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +400 |
| 13+ receiving TD | +1600 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 1,000.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Under 1,000.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| 1,250+ receiving yards | +350 |
| Over 67.5 receptions | -110 |
| Under 67.5 receptions | -110 |
BACK TO TOP
Best prop: Under 67.5 Receptions (-110)
Metcalf saw a significant downtick in receptions, with his numbers dropping from a career-high 90 catches in 2022 to only 66 on 119 targets last season. Injuries to Smith and the offensive line dulled DK’s downfield threat.
The 2023 Seahawks threw the ball at the fifth-highest rate and Grubbs’ new offense is looking for better balance in the playcalling while also spreading the love when Smith does drop back.
Player projections for Metcalf all lean toward the Under in his prop markets while forecasts for fellow WRs Lockett and Smith-Njigba point to the Over. Those models call for 66 catches and that’s if DK doesn’t miss a single game.
Seattle Seahawks trend: Divisional Unders
The Seahawks needed a shake-up, at least on offense. And a 5-13 Over/Under count in NFC West matchups the past three seasons is evidence of that.
No opponent knows your ins and outs like divisional opponents and since 2021 Seattle has struggled to score against those foes. Through those 18 divisional clashes, the Seahawks have scored more than 21 points only five times. That includes all six of last year’s games inside the NFC West, leading to a 1-5 O/U count.
Seattle Seahawks Divisional games
- Week 6 vs. San Francisco (46.5)
- Week 9 vs. L.A. Rams (46.5)
- Week 11 @ San Francisco (46.5)
- Week 12 vs. Arizona (46)
- Week 14 @ Arizona (46)
- Week 18 @ L.A. Rams (47)
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”
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