Two AFC West rivals will get after it in Los Angeles this weekend with the Denver Broncos in town to take on the Los Angeles Chargers.
Each team is on the outside of the playoff picture, but neither is out of the wild card race, so picking up a win is absolutely imperative for each squad.
While the Broncos have turned their season around after a horrific start, the Chargers are fighting for relevance while their head coach remains on the hot seat. The NFL odds have Los Angeles favored by 2.5 while the game has a total of 43.5 points.
Let’s dig into the current form for each team, as well as how they match up, and I’ll give you my free NFL picks for Broncos vs. Chargers on December 10.
Broncos vs Chargers odds
Broncos vs Chargers predictions
The Denver Broncos’ season couldn’t have started much worse. Their first six games saw them go 1-5 which included three losses at home while also losing by 50 points in Miami.
Since then, they’ve done a complete 180, going 5-1 in their next six games which has them in a solid position to contend for a wild card spot.
How did they turn things around? That’s hard to put your finger on, but not allowing 30+ points at home to teams like the Commanders and Jets has helped… as has not allowing another 70-point game as they did against the Dolphins. The defense has certainly cleaned things up, but it’s not as simple as just that.
I think it ultimately comes down to the offense doing just enough to stay in games while also taking advantage of an avalanche of turnovers that have fallen into their lap.
During their five-game win streak, their opponents had an insane 16 turnovers while they only had three. Despite being +13 in the turnover battle in these games, three of the five wins came by two points or less.
It’s fair to say they had some luck on their side during the win streak, and maybe it’s not a coincidence that in their loss to the Texans this past week, Houston didn’t turn it over once.
As for the Los Angeles Chargers — let’s not mince words — they’ve done absolutely nothing to inspire any type of confidence for bettors, especially as a favorite.
Their last three wins this season have come against Bailey Zappe, Zach Wilson, and Tyson Bagent. They come into this game ranked 24th in net yards per play, which is actually better than the Broncos at 28th.
We clearly can’t trust the Chargers and while it’s fair to also be suspicious of the Broncos’ recent success, we know these teams are easy to move the ball against, ranking 28th and 31st in yards allowed per play.
We’ve seen the Chargers get lit up on their home field twice this season with the Lions scoring 41 and the Dolphins putting up 36. While the Broncos have been keeping their opponents’ scoring down, they might be due for some regression unless they can keep benefiting from turnovers.
These teams last met in Week 18 last season where they combined for 59 points and 823 total yards with both Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert having strong performances.
This game sets up nicely for both as Russ should be able to stuff the stat sheet against a Chargers defense that’s allowing the second-most passing yards per game, while Herbert will face a Broncos defense that’s generating the fifth-lowest pressure percentage while allowing the sixth-highest completion percentage.
With no confidence in either side to cover the spread, I’ll happily take the Over as my best bet.
My best bet: Over 43.5 (-115 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Broncos vs Chargers same-game parlay
Over 43.5First-half Over 21.5Russell Wilson Over 215.5 passing yards
+242 at FanDuel
Let’s build off that full-game Over with some correlated bets that fade this Chargers defense.
I think the bulk of the scoring could take place during the first half. The Chargers defense has been getting off to slow starts on their home field, where they’re allowing an average of 13 points, which is sixth most in the NFL. Denver’s defense has also allowed 13+ points in four of its five road games.
I fully expect the Broncos to attack the weak secondary of the Chargers that’s allowed 269.8 passing yards per game at home. Wilson hasn’t been asked to do a lot of heavy lifting for the offense, but a heavy dose of the pass will be the best path to victory for Denver.
Wilson threw for 283 yards in that Week 18 game against the Chargers last season and could rack up some big chunk plays as L.A. ranks 28th in yards allowed per completion.
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